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“A quintessential work of technological futurism.” – James Surowiecki, strategy + business, “Best Business Books 2017 – Innovation” From one of our leading technology thinkers and writers, a guide through the twelve technological imperatives that will shape the next thirty years and transform our lives Much of what will happen in the next thirty years is inevitable, driven by technological trends that are already in motion. In this fascinating, provocative new book, Kevin Kelly provides an optimistic road map for the future, showing how the coming changes in our lives—from virtual reality in the home to an on-demand economy to artificial intelligence embedded in everything we manufacture—can be understood as the result of a few long-term, accelerating forces. Kelly both describes these deep trends—interacting, cognifying, flowing, screening, accessing, sharing, filtering, remixing, tracking, and questioning—and demonstrates how they overlap and are codependent on one another. These larger forces will completely revolutionize the way we buy, work, learn, and communicate with each other. By understanding and embracing them, says Kelly, it will be easier for us to remain on top of the coming wave of changes and to arrange our day-to-day relationships with technology in ways that bring forth maximum benefits. Kelly’s bright, hopeful book will be indispensable to anyone who seeks guidance on where their business, industry, or life is heading—what to invent, where to work, in what to invest, how to better reach customers, and what to begin to put into place—as this new world emerges.
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Liczba stron: 33
Chapter 1: Becoming
Chapter 2: Cognifying
Chapter 3: Flowing
Chapter 4: Screening
Chapter 5: Accessing
Chapter 6: Sharing
Chapter 7: Filtering
Chapter 8: Remixing
Chapter 9: Interacting
Chapter 10: Tracking
Chapter 11: Questioning
Chapter 12: Beginning
Table of Contents
Fixed products will move to becoming continuously upgraded services and subscriptions.
All physical objects require ongoing maintenance to keep them in good working order. The online world is similar – apps and software require ongoing upgrades to retain their vitality and relevance. To keep your tech healthy, you have to be doing regular updates.
"Technological life in the future will be a series of endless upgrades. And the rate of graduations is accelerating. Features shift, defaults disappear, menus morph. I'll open up a software package I don't use every day expecting certain choices, and whole menus will have disappeared. No matter how long you have been using a tool, endless upgrades make you into a newbie—the new user often seen as clueless. In this era of "becoming," everyone becomes a newbie. Worse, we will be newbies forever. That should keep us humble."— Kevin Kelly
If you think about, a world without change is fast becoming stagnant and ultimately irrelevant. Humans require ongoing change and accept it as a natural part of life. More and more, it will become clear you have to embrace the future and get busy becoming something better if you want to keep up with the play.
The web is a good illustration. Pre-1994, the web was text-based and pretty boring. Once Netscape came along in 1994 with browser software, more people started using the web but there was still a lot of skepticism. Time magazine confidently forecast in 1994 the web would never go mainstream because "It was not designed for doing commerce, and it does not gracefully accommodate new arrivals." The prevailing thinking at that time was the Internet would offer 5,000 always-on channels which would deliver any show you felt like watching.
Everyone back in the day missed the bigger story – that 20 years later the Internet would be filled with not just 5,000 channels of content but 500 million channels, all customer generated. Nobody would have believed Facebook, YouTube, Instagram and Twitter would be worth billions not on the basis of content created by their staff but by their audience.
Equally, nobody in the mid-1990s would have believed eBay, Craigslist or Alibaba would handle several billion transactions every year with users doing the bulk of the work involved. Today's web has become something which is quite different from that first envisaged.
In a similar vein, the web thirty years from now will have become something we can't even visualize at the present time. Our first inclination is to see that future web as a better version of what we already do but that won't be the case. As hyperlinks start extending from what can be googled today into videos, physical objects, devices and more, it will become a constant background presence.
"Can you imagine how awesome it would have been to be an ambitious entrepreneur back in 1985 at the dawn of the internet? But, but . . . here is the thing. In terms of the internet, nothing has happened yet! The internet is still at the beginning of its beginning. It is only becoming. If we could climb into a time machine, journey 30 years into the future, and from that vantage look back to today, we'd realize that most of the greatest products running the lives of citizens in 2050 were not invented until after 2016. People in the future will look at their holodecks and wearable virtual reality contact lenses and downloadable avatars and AI interfaces and say, "Oh, you didn't really have the internet"—or whatever they'll call it—“back then."– Kevin Kelly
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